A group saying that it represents the views of a majority of Irish car dealers, and styling itself the Irish Car Carbon Reduction Alliance (ICCRA) has claimed a victory in the wording of the Government's new Climate Bill.
Carbon Budgets
Set out yesterday, the Climate Bill is arguably one of the most significant and far-reaching Irish political documents since the formation of the state. It will seek to, through a series of five-year 'carbon budgets' (which are set to become as important to us as citizens and consumers as the annual fiscal budget) reduce Ireland's carbon emissions to a point where they are at least in balance (i.e: carbon neutral) or preferably in decline.
Every sector of the economy and the nation will be affected, and transport most especially. Low or zero-carbon strategies will be rewarded, and higher carbon use punished - it's that simple.
ICCRA's claim of victory comes in the fact that the long-proposed ban on the sale of internal combustion engined cars by 2030, has not been specifically included in the Bill.
2030 target
Denis Murphy, spokesperson for ICCRA Mr Murphy said: "Achieving the 2030 target in Ireland requires the sale of a blended mix of all cars, clean petrol and diesel, hybrid and electric through to 2030, and replacing older cars in our fleet. The average new car sold next year will emit 28 per cent less CO2 than the average car currently on Irish roads, so for every car replaced in 2021 with a newer cleaner car, we can achieve significant emission reductions. It would be a win-win for everyone."
Previously, ICCRA had claimed that the Green Party was both ignoring its lobbying, and using incorrect data to set Ireland's climate change goals, accusations that the Greens did not bother responding to when we put it to them.
That claim, that 2021 model year cars are automatically cleaner, does not necessarily bear much scrutiny. While new cars may be less carbon-intensive than the average car on the road, that is largely down to the fact that the age of the Irish car fleet has been increasing of late, with that 'average' approaching nine years old now.
Rising CO2 emissions from cars
Far more significant is that our motoring choices - especially the en-masse shift from hatchbacks to SUVs - is actually driving up CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions from cars are actually going up, both in Ireland and across Europe. According to motor industry analysts JATO Dynamics, Ireland's average vehicle CO2 emissions increased by 0.6g/km in 2019, bringing the average emissions (taken as an average of all vehicles sold) to 113.7g/km of CO2. That compares to a European average rise of 1.3g/km in 2019, bringing the continental average to 121.8g/km. According to Felipe Munoz, an analyst at car market watchers JATO Dynamics, it's because we've dropped diesel from our shopping lists, and yet still by increasing numbers of hefty SUVs. "As expected, the combination of fewer diesel registrations and more SUVs continued to have an impact on emissions" Munoz told CompleteCar. "We don't anticipate any change to this trend in the mid-term, indeed these results further highlight the industry's need to adopt EVs at a rapid pace to reach emissions targets."
The average CO2 emissions for SUVs was 131.5g/km, which was higher than emissions posted from city-cars (107.7g/km), subcompacts (109.2 g/km), compacts (115.3g/km), midsize (117.9g/km), and executive cars (131g/km). In addition to this, SUVs made up 38 per cent of total registrations in 2019. "The SUV segment of the market urgently needs more electrified models. To date, the focus for EVs has been on traditional hatchbacks and sedans, leaving very few choices in the SUV market. If these vehicles want to keep gaining traction and avoid future sanctions, they need to be electrified" said Munoz.
ICCRA says that reductions in the taxation of vehicles, especially Vehicle Registration Tax, will be needed to get motorists to buy those incoming new electric cars. According to Denis Murphy: "Reductions in taxation would provide an important stimulus to the replacement of Ireland's vehicle fleet and the achievement of real and lasting reductions in our carbon emissions. We support the Government's commitment to address climate change. We will read the bill in detail and comment further when we have completed a detailed review. We recognise urgent action is required across all sectors of the Irish economy, including the motor sector, so that everyone plays their part in protecting our planet."
Any reduction in tax is highly unlikely anyway. A recent report from the Tax Strategy Group, which represents the thinking of senior civil servants, says that reductions in motoring taxes do not bring about the desired environmental effects.
On top of which, the ICCRA's claim of a victory in the wording of the Climate Bill could well be both premature and pyrrhic. While the Bill does not put into words the plan to ban combustion engine sales by 2030, it doesn't have to. What it does do is put the power to do so into the hands of the relevant Minister. Given that transport policy is, in the Bill's wording, second only to climate change science in the list of areas to be considered when setting Ireland's carbon budgets, it seems likely that the axe will still fall on combustion engines in 2030 either way.