The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) reckons that we're on course for traffic meltdown if we don't start putting major investment into roads and public transport in next week's budget.
According to Pat Mangan, the policy committee chairman of the Chartered Institute of Transport and Logistics, it's only a matter of time, and economic recovery, before we're all sitting, staring and swearing at the back bumper in front of us.
"We accept that there's a very difficult position at the moment in terms of public finances, but we have to start thinking about the future when the economy starts to grow again and generate income. Our concern is that during the financial crisis, the level of investment in transport has declined very, very sharply. It's only about a quarter now of what it was at the peak in 2008, and that's just too steep a drop, and we need to start planning now before the economy improves. For instance, we're spending about €800 million a year on capital investment at the moment, and we need to be spending that on just maintaining and renewing the existing network alone.
"The main reason for the recent improvements in urban traffic is that the traffic level has fallen very very sharply. Fewer people are working, people are emigrating and so on. We saw this before, in the 1970s and 1980s. And then as soon as the economy started to grow, the congestion grew very rapidly. The message we want to send out is that you need to start planning now, to get ahead of the next level of congestion because it's too late to start planning once the next level of congestion arrives, and it will arrive very, very quickly once the economy grows, and people start getting back to work again."
CILT recently held a conference in Dublin to recognise the contribution of women in global transport, and one of the key speakers was Dr Dorothy Chan, something of a softly-spoken superstar in the public transport sphere. She is largely credited with the successful shake of up Hong Kong's transport network over the past decade.
"This is my first visit to Dublin and of course in comparison with Hong Kong, Hong Kong's density of population is much higher. It's a very small area of 200 square kilometres and a population of seven million. But every city should be looking to the future, and that means greening - how we should develop sustainable transport, and I think Dublin has the same challenge - and that is how we can make the best use of our space and our environment, and how we can put those two together so that mobility is maintained without too many cars on the road, so that the public transport system is strengthened and enhanced and so that more space is given to pedestrians. That was the challenge that we faced in Hong Kong and I think that also applies here.
"A city like Dublin, which is growing, which has a port, which all means that you want to have an environment which merges with the human activity, rather than to be segregated. We don't want, you know, bus; you do this, and rail; you do this. What we want is a whole city concept.
"I think connectivity is very important. Every city, as it develops, will spread out. So, how do you bring people to work, how do you bring the economic activities together? The private car is simply not the solution. You build a new road and the next day, it's filled up. So you have to rely on the public transport system. I understand that to build a railway is very expensive and you need the volume to fill it. But in most cities where the volume is lower and the city is spread out, it's better to develop the bus rapid transit system. So you're just repurposing the existing road into a dedicated road for buses, so that they can make more trips, more reliably. And then of course on the fringes of the bus rapid transit system and the rail system, you need park and ride, so that people don't have to take their car into town. Of course people will say 'oh, you're penalising the private car owner' but the reason behind is that our human activity creates social cost. To be able to use our road space efficiently is the message. In Hong Kong, we have double decker buses that can take about 120 passengers, yet it's equivalent to a road space of two and a half private cars, so you have to think about how you can use your road space more efficiently. All human activities have a role to play, and therefore the city planning is the concept of mobility. How can I go from point A to point B at the cheapest cost in the quickest time?
"In Hong Kong, there have always been three major areas into which we have put investment. One is education, because you need the next generation to have creativity and human resources. Second is health and then public transport. Actually, we have made use of the railway development as the backbone of the urban transport system, and to revitalise our urban districts. It's called the R&P model, the Railway and Property model, so you build the railway lines and along that line urban development comes in to support commercial activities, even with residential blocks on top of railway stations, where people can simply leave their flats and go downstairs to get the train. Actually, it's more sustainable because people don't drive, and while it's very expensive to build a railway line, you then have more activity around the line which supports and finances the construction of the railway. In Hong Kong we don't subsidise the bus services, they are supposed to provide break-even services, so there is quite a bit of competition for quality, and people are attracted to use public transport. So in Hong Kong it's very hot a lot of the time, so many of the buses are air conditioned, and they have large windows so you almost get the impression that you are a tourist in your own city, not a third-class commuter, packed like sardines in a bus. So it works, 90 per cent of our daily trips are now made on public transport services so this is a very high figure. If I go to work now, I don't take the car. I just get on the nearest public transport service."