What's the news?
Well, 2015 was a pretty good year for the Irish car industry, which saw a certain amount of shrugging off of the sack cloth and ashes of recession, and which saw sales peak at nearly 125,000 units through the year - a healthy number. This year, it's been predicted that sales could reach a very healthy number of 150,000, but data experts at Cartell.ie reckon that it could go even higher.
The conclusion is based on the potential for a large number of older vehicles to be scrapped and removed from the national car park. Now, the maths on this is a touch complicated, but basically, what Cartell.ie is saying is that, thanks to the bumper car sales Ireland enjoyed in 2000, 2001 and 2002, there are a huge number of those cars up for retirement and a trip to the breakers this year. That retirement is being driven by a number of factors, not least that many of those cars will now be outside their original anti-perforation warranties, and rust may be setting in. Low resale values and the high cost of parts and labour, relative to the values of these cars, will also be factors, as will the number of very attractive 'scrappage' offers that dealers currently have in place.
In fact, Cartell.ie expects that as many as 130,000 older cars could be taken off the road this year, potentially driving a huge segment of the market back into dealers for something shiny and new.
John Byrne, of Cartell.ie, says: "If the industry is predicting new car sales of 150,000 units in 2016 based on existing levels of growth, demand, and natural market attrition, we would say that number could be even higher based on this research. We expect thousands more cars will retire from the fleet this year compared to last year and this leaves an opportunity for significantly improved new car sales - as owners shuffle up the market into newer vehicles. Obviously time will tell if the industry can capitalise on the opportunity these numbers present."