While 2020's been a pretty grim year in most respects, one silver lining has been a recent fall in CO2 emissions from Europe's cars. According to JATO Dynamics, a major motor industry analyst, Europe is only 6.5g/km of CO2 away from meeting its emissions targets.
NEDC test cycle
There's a catch, though. For the 21 countries in Europe, the average CO2 emissions totalled 102.2g/km but that's recorded under the old, discredited, NEDC test cycle. It also includes so-called 'super-credits' (where carmakers are allowed to count electric sales as double when it comes to calculating CO2 emissions) and pooling (where carmakers can share their emissions ratings to bring down their average).
JATO says that the biggest driver of this reduction in emissions (and it does represent a reduction, even if the calculation is done under the old NEDC system) is down to electric cars. Despite overall registrations falling by 29 per cent between January and September this year - when contrasted with the same period in 2019 - registrations for electrified cars increased by 67 per cent through September to 1.54 million units. The same period - COVID-affected of course - has seen a double-digit fall in demand for petrol and diesel cars.
Volvo leading the way
According to JATO, it's Volvo that's leading the charge in meeting - even exceeding - its CO2 targets. For Europe, the Geely Group (the Chinese conglomerate that owns Volvo, and for which Volvo accounts for 99 per cent of its sales volume) was given an average emissions target of 110.3g/km. Thanks to Volvo's efforts to sell plug-in hybrid, mild-hybrids, and its new Polestar range of electric cars, the group has already hit an average of 103.1g/km. Electrified vehicles accounted for half of all Volvo sales in August of this year.
BMW is next in line to meet the target. With an average of 103.5 g/km in August, it is only 0.54 g/km above its target of 102.9 g/km. If this average remained the same, the German carmaker would only have to pay a minimal penalty at the end of the year. Meeting the target is more than achievable due to a mix of two strategies: increasing the share of electrified vehicles on sale, and the relatively low emissions generated by its diesel cars.
Toyota troubles?
Oddly, according to JATO, Toyota might have difficulty in hitting its targets. While two-thirds of Toyota's sales have been of hybrid cars for the past three years, and while Toyota is currently only 2.2g/km away from its CO2 target, JATO reckons that the slow roll-out of fully-electric vehicles in either its or in Lexus' range is slowing down its CO2 reductions.
JATO contrasts Toyota' approach with that of rival Hyundai-Kia. While hybrids accounted for 65 per cent of Toyota Group volume in August, they only made up 13 per cent for Hyundai. However, pure electric cars represented 8 per cent of registrations for the Korean manufacturer, while Toyota has been unable to put any on sale this year. This, says JATO, perfectly demonstrates how electric cars are much more strongly placed to meet emissions targets, perhaps more so, than hybrid vehicles.