Carbon emissions across the Irish private transport fleet have risen, despite a fall in 2020 and despite the government's recent Climate Action Plan commitment to reduce transport emissions, according to an annual report by Cartell.ie.
Bucking the trend?
The report, which looks at CO2 emissions for the first ten months of each year, shows that the average emissions level for new cars sold in Ireland is currently 112g/km, a figure not seen since 2018 and much higher than the 105g/km recorded last year.
Although the emissions figures are significantly lower than when Cartell first started recording carbon figures back in 2003 - the average then was 165g/km - the spike does buck a downward trend.
That said, with lockdowns depressing car sales last year, some readjustment in the market is to be expected and, were it not for the artificially low figures for 2020, 112g/km is broadly in line with trends seen in recent years, excluding the effect of the pandemic.
Price factor
While it used to be the case that more expensive cars with bigger engines were the worst polluters, that seems to have flipped. The most carbon intensive cars are now those priced at under €20,000 (122g/km on average) while the most eco-friendly are those priced at €60,000 and above (with an average output of 90g/km)
"The reason for this is pretty straightforward," said Jeff Aherne, Cartell's Innovation Lead.
"Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are bringing down the overall level of emissions in the more expensive segments. Until the price of these vehicle types reduces we face an uphill battle in bringing down fleet CO2/km any further. At the other end of the market, these results show that those with cash to splurge on an expensive car are thinking about the environment: this is one good thing to come out of these findings."
What this means for the Government
Figures like these providing an insight into the individual financial cost of going green are something of which the government needs to take note when it comes to meeting the targets of its recently-unveiled Climate Action Plan.
The current target of having 936,000 electric vehicles on Irish roads by 2030 is already wildly optimistic, and unless incentives backed by grants and low-cost loans are ramped up, the dent made by buyer choices in reducing transport emissions will remain marginal, especially as battery-electric cars are not expected to reach price parity with petrol-powered ones until the second half of the decade. The failure too to commit to a long-term plan to incentivise people into choosing lower-emission cars is a deterrent.
According to Taoiseach Micheál Martin: "Nobody's going to be forced to buy electric vehicles but when the time does come to change your car, we want to make sure that the balances of incentives and disincentives is right so that you make the decision to go electric."
If Cartell's figures are anything to go by, when it comes to bringing down private transport emissions, it'll be those shopping in the more affordable end of the market that bear the brunt of any carrot and stick approach.