What's the news?
The Irish car trade is taking a slightly gloomy look at its prospects for next year, even as sales are stacking up well for 2016.
So far this year, a shade more than 120,000 new cars have been sold or registered. Overall the car market is up by 23 per cent year on year, while the first 20 days of July represented an 11 per cent increase on sales in the same period in 2015.
The national exchequer has taken in €978-million as a direct result of new car sales in the second quarter, so we're well on our way to the kind of €4-5-billion figures that the Irish motorist was paying to the government pre-recession.
Petrol prices are down by 8.4 per cent, diesel down by 12.4 per cent and the price of a new car has fallen by, on average, three per cent. Only insurance is providing a fly in the ointment, having risen by a shocking 38 per cent.
All of these figures come from the quarterly review of the market put together by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI), so you'd expect them to be cock-a-hoop about such strong growth and a general lowering of costs.
But they're not. They're worried. Even with the car market expected to top 150,000 sales this year, SIMI is expressing concerns about the potential for a flat market in 2017.
Jim Power Economist and author of the report said: "Despite the still-positive economic outlook, growth in car sales could be low or maybe even flat in 2017. This slowdown in growth reflects a market approaching, but still lower, than its natural state, after a prolonged period of catch up, but one that is now shrouded in Brexit uncertainty."
Alan Greene SIMI President highlighted: "In the first 6 months of 2016, 32,285 used cars were imported but we have seen research quoted in the media that among these cars have been a significant number that should never be allowed on the road here. It is totally unacceptable that dangerously unsafe cars written-off and removed from the road in another jurisdiction can be registered and put back into service here. We also have cars written off here, which have no record of their unsafe status recorded on the NVDF to protect future buyers and other road users. SIMI has been pressing for action on these issues for far too long and it is vital that these problems are dealt with without any further delay.
"We understand that proposals on write-offs are before the Cabinet and we urge the Minister to take immediate action. A statutory requirement to record all write-offs and details of seriously damaged vehicles on the NVDF together with a prohibition on registering unsafe vehicles that have been previously written-off in another country will save lives on our roads and will protect consumers.
"The soaring cost of insurance, especially for young people or for those driving older cars is also a serious concern. The proposed action on write-offs may also help in this regard but more than that is needed to reduce the cost of motor insurance. We believe it's time for the Government to establish a strong review of the causes of the current high cost of insurance, similar to the Motor Insurance Advisory board that successfully achieved significant insurance cost reductions during the late 1990's. There is a real danger that without such action we will see an increase in the number of uninsured drivers as was the case previously when insurance costs were unacceptably high."