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With the deadline for the introduction of the new WLTP fuel economy and emissions test looming in September, car makers across Europe are currently scrambling to get their vehicles re-tested and re-homologated under the new legislation. WLTP replaces the old NEDC test, which has become widely discredited and outdated, with many pointing out that it produces unrealistic fuel economy and emissions figures that cannot be replicated under real-world conditions.
While WLTP has been introduced, largely, to give consumers more accurate information on the cars they're buying, JATO Dynamics, a London-based car industry analyst company, is warning that the new tests could see a huge increase in the official CO2 emissions figures across the car market, which could lead to higher taxes for consumers, and higher prices for cars as manufacturers will have to pay fines if they exceed the EU's CO2 emissions targets.
Earlier this year, JATO calculated that the average jump in CO2 figures from the old NEDC and NEDC-Correlated test to full WLTP was going to be about 8g/km, when the figures were adjusted to allow for the volume of cars being sold. With more cars now tested and therefore a bigger sample, JATO now reckons that the jump is going to be more like 9.6g/km. That may not sound huge, but it's worth remembering that this is based on only around 20 per cent of available models having been retested - with huge numbers of cars still to be given their new figures, and many of those left to test being larger, heavier vehicles, that disparity is likely to grow.
In fact, broken down by segment, the JATO figures show just how much the weight and size of the car will affect the WLTP figure for its emissions. City cars show only a 6.6g/km increase in CO2 values on average, while even small SUVs are below the overall average figure, with a 7.5g/km increase. Large SUVs, though? A whopping 14g/km increase, on average, while luxury cars scored the worst, with a jump of 18.3g/km.
A spokesperson for JATO commented: "What our latest data shows is that the impact of re-homologation to WLTP testing could be even higher than previously thought. Following our analysis of a sample of the vehicles currently re-homologated, if this is extrapolated to the whole fleet, CO2 values could reach 130g/km in 2019, which is a significant 12g/km increase on the 118g/km currently seen in Europe and above the target set by the EU. As a result, car manufacturers could face a penalty of €95 per gram over the target per vehicles sold. This could amount to a huge financial penalty for the European car industry who registered more than 16 million vehicles in 2017.
"What is also worrying for the industry is that the publication of re-homologated models/versions is not progressing as quickly as expected. It has taken 11 months for 20 per cent of existing model and versions in the market to be re-homologated and published, meaning the industry could face a backlog of vehicles that cannot be registered if it isn't completed by 31 August."
JATO is also pointing out that diesel car sales are now at their lowest ebb for almost 20 years, with just 37 per cent of the European car market. With their naturally-lower levels of CO2, that fall-off in sales is going to have a major effect on average European carbon emissions, which hybrids, plugin hybrids, and electric vehicles are not yet able to cover for - while sales of such cars are up by some 30 per cent year on year, they still only account for six per cent of the overall market.